Just noticed arabica coffee prices are climbing again today with May arabica up about 0.5%. The robusta side is also in the green. What's catching traders' attention is this shipping situation - the geopolitical tensions are pushing freight costs and insurance premiums higher, which directly hits coffee importers' margins. That's putting some floor under arabica coffee price today even with the dollar strength working against it.

Brazil's been dumping rain on their growing regions though, which is the real headwind. Minas Gerais just got 131% of normal rainfall for the week, and forecasters are calling for a massive 2026 crop - up 17% with arabica production jumping 23%. That's a lot of supply coming. Vietnam's also crushing it on exports, up 38% year-over-year in January alone. When you've got record production estimates globally hitting 180 million bags next season, it's hard for arabica coffee price today to hold gains.

The interesting part is that ICE inventories actually recovered this week after hitting multi-year lows a few months back. Arabica stocks bounced to 528k bags, robusta to 4,721 lots. So we're going from supply tightness to supply abundance pretty quickly. Colombia's having production issues (down 34% January), which is one of the few bullish spots, but it's not enough to offset what Brazil and Vietnam are putting out. The broader commodity picture suggests arabica coffee price today might be consolidating before the reality of that huge Brazilian harvest really sinks in.