Noticed coffee taking a beating this week - both May arabica and robusta futures are down pretty sharply. The robusta slide on London's ICE market has been particularly steep, and honestly it's not hard to see why when you look at what's happening with supply.

Brazil's looking at a massive coffee crop coming in. Their official forecast just came out showing production jumping over 17% year-over-year, with arabica up even more at 23%. Meanwhile Vietnam's been flooding the market with robusta exports - January alone saw shipments surge nearly 40% compared to last year. That's a lot of supply hitting the market all at once. Global robusta coffee prices are getting crushed under this weight, especially with forecasts now projecting record output globally for next season.

What's interesting is that ICE robusta coffee prices have been recovering from their lows, but it's not sticking. Inventories bounced back too, which usually signals the market's not convinced there's any real shortage. Colombia's production is down significantly, which would normally support prices, but it's not enough to offset what's coming from Brazil and Vietnam. The math just isn't working in coffee's favor right now - too much supply on the horizon.