I just looked at some data on global rare earth reserves and found some quite interesting contradictions. Many people think that countries with large reserves are the biggest producers, but the reality is not quite that simple.

First, China, no surprises here—450k tons of reserves far ahead, with a 2024 production of 2.7 million tons, accounting for 70% of the world's output. But what's interesting is that China has been adjusting its strategy over the years, realizing since 2012 that reserves are declining, and later establishing commercial and national stockpiles. They also crack down on illegal mining and restrict export quotas. This monopoly has caused numerous international trade frictions, and the 2010 export ban directly pushed up global rare earth prices.

Even more interesting is Brazil—second in the world with 130M tons of reserves, but only 20 tons produced in 2024. However, this situation is changing. Serra Verde's Pela Ema project started commercial production in early 2024, with an expected capacity of 5,000 tons per year by 2026. What's special about this project is that it is the only place outside China capable of producing four key magnetic rare earths—neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and dysprosium—simultaneously.

Over in the US, things are quite intriguing. Although 2024's production is 450k tons, ranking second globally, reserves are only 1.9 million tons, placing the US seventh worldwide. Currently, only the Mountain Pass mine in California is operational, owned by MP Materials. They are building downstream capacity at facilities in Texas to convert rare earth oxides into magnets and related products. Last year, the Biden administration allocated $17.5 million to support R&D in rare earth and critical mineral processing technologies.

Australia has 5.7 million tons of reserves, ranking fourth, with Lynas Rare Earths operating the Mount Weld mine and refining facilities in Malaysia, considered the world's largest non-Chinese rare earth supplier. They completed expansion at Mount Weld in 2025, and in mid-2024, they also started a new rare earth processing plant in Kalgoorlie. Another company, Hastings' Yangibana project, is ready and expected to start production in Q4 2026.

India, Russia, and Vietnam also have significant reserves, but their production is relatively low. Vietnam's data is quite complicated—reserves were sharply revised down from 22 million tons the previous year to 3.5 million tons, with only 300 tons produced in 2024. Greenland has 1.5 million tons of reserves; although it hasn't started production yet, projects like Tanbreez and Kvanefjeld have attracted considerable attention.

Total global rare earth reserves amount to 390k tons, with a 2024 production of 390k tons, up 3.6% from the previous year. A decade ago, global rare earth output was just over 100k tons; by 2019, it surpassed 200k tons, and the growth rate has clearly accelerated. As new energy and high-tech industries develop, the importance of the rare earth supply chain is increasingly evident, with many countries striving to establish independent rare earth industries. Some countries, despite abundant reserves, have low production, and may become new players in the rare earth market in the future. This evolving landscape warrants ongoing attention.