【May 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Professional Report】

Data as of May 1, 2026
Current Price: Fluctuating around 76,000 - 76,500 USD (fell back from over 77k at the end of April).
Executive Summary and Trading Conclusions:
• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Neutral leaning slightly bearish. The recently concluded FOMC meeting kept interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with Powell’s speech overall neutral and cautious, causing a “sell the fact” effect in the market.
• Medium-term (1-3 months): Still structurally bullish. Institutional ETF inflows remain strong + on-chain large holders/whales are actively accumulating, providing solid bottom support.
Direct Trading Recommendations:
• Long positions: Hold support at 75k-76,000, confirm additional positions on volume break above 79k-80k, target 82k-85k, stop loss at 74,500.
• Short positions: Light positions around 79k, target 74k-75k, stop loss at 80,500.
Risk Control: Volatility remains high, recommend not exceeding 20-30% of total capital per position.
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1. Macro Environment (FOMC just concluded)
• Fed Meeting on April 29: Interest rates held steady at **3.50%-3.75%**, in line with 100% market expectations.
• Voting showed significant divergence (rare in recent years), indicating internal disagreements on inflation (driven by energy/oil prices) and policy path.
• Powell’s speech was neutral and cautious, emphasizing persistent inflation pressures, not rushing to cut rates, and indicating he will remain on the board for a while.
• U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index remain high, continuing to suppress risk assets in the short term.
2. Geopolitical Factors
Middle East tensions (oil prices high) remain a key inflation driver, increasing market uncertainty. In the short term, risk appetite is subdued; long-term narrative strengthens BTC as a de-dollarization hedge.
3. Institutional and On-chain Data (Core positives)
• Spot ETF: Strong net inflows in April (over $2.4 billion in a single month), total inflows exceeding $58 billion, dominated by BlackRock’s iBIT, indicating steady institutional demand.
• On-chain: Exchange reserves have fallen to 2.21-77k BTC (near 7-year lows), significantly reducing selling pressure.
• Large holder behavior: Whales (holding 1,000+ BTC) accumulated about 270k BTC over the past 30 days, one of the strongest accumulations since 2013; mid-tier holders are also actively absorbing. Supply contraction is evident.
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4. Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: 78,000 – 79,000 (recent supply zone), psychological level at 80,000.
• Key Support: 75k – 76,000 (core defense), 73,000-74k (next line), strong psychological support at 70,000.
• Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index in Fear zone, market remains cautious.
Risk Scenarios:
• Bearish risk: Powell’s hawkish signals persist + USD strength → possible test of 74k-75k.
• Bullish scenario: Geopolitical easing + ETF inflows + accelerated on-chain accumulation → rebound after breaking 80k.
Summary:
The recent FOMC has brought short-term pressure, with some “initial rally then sell-off” playing out; however, on-chain supply contraction and institutional demand are clearly building a bottom. Medium-term outlook remains optimistic for a recovery driven by supply-demand imbalance.
Discipline in trading is paramount; focus on upcoming macro data and geopolitical developments.
Data sourced from public markets and on-chain platforms, for reference only. DYOR!
What are your thoughts on BTC’s trend after the FOMC? Feel free to discuss 👇