Just been looking at the robusta coffee moves and it's pretty interesting how much the supply picture has shifted. London robusta coffee price today reflects this broader trend - we've seen robusta drop to 4-month lows as Vietnam keeps ramping up exports. Their November shipments jumped 39% year-over-year, and forecasts are calling for production to hit a 4-year high. That's a lot of supply hitting the market.

Brazil's been getting hammered with rain too, which sounds good for crops but it's actually crushing prices. Minas Gerais got over 150% of normal rainfall, and Conab raised their 2025 production estimate to 56.54 million bags. The thing is, when supply outlook improves everywhere at once, you get selling pressure across the board. Arabica dropped to 3-week lows alongside robusta.

What's holding prices up a bit is that ICE inventories are actually pretty tight - they hit 1.75-year lows back in November. And global exports are down slightly year-over-year. But honestly, with Vietnam's robusta production expected to climb another 6% and Brazil's crop looking solid, the supply story is just too bearish right now. That's why we're seeing this extended slide.