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Just been looking at Signet Jewelers and honestly it's hard to ignore what's been happening with this stock. Up 92% over the past year and still climbing - that kind of performance in consumer goods is pretty rare these days.
What caught my attention is that this isn't just hype. Signet actually owns a bunch of the jewelry retailers you'd recognize - Zales, Kay, Jared, plus they've got Blue Nile and Diamonds Direct in their portfolio. Around 2,600 locations globally. The company's been executing well, and the numbers back it up.
Their latest quarter was solid. Same-store sales grew 3% year-over-year, but the real story is the earnings - up 162% adjusted. Gross margins expanded by 130 basis points to 37.3%. That's the kind of operational leverage you want to see.
Lab-grown diamonds are a huge part of this momentum. They've gone from about 7.5% to 15% of fashion sales in a year, and they're hitting 40% of bridal sales now. Makes sense too - they're cheaper to produce, better margins for retailers, and consumers get better value. Plus inventory management becomes way easier. This is a secular trend that's just getting started.
Here's where it gets interesting though. Even after this massive run-up, Signet is trading at only 9 times forward earnings. For a company with this growth trajectory and market position, that feels cheap. The broader jewelry industry is expected to grow 4-5% annually through 2028, but lab-grown diamonds specifically are projected at 15-16% growth. Signet's pretty much the dominant player in this space.
The stock did pull back a bit after they reported earnings in March, which is normal. But the guidance they gave suggests momentum is still there. Analysts are modeling roughly 13% earnings growth for next fiscal year with revenue up around 1%, which sounds conservative given what's happening in the lab-grown diamond category.
I'm not saying you should rush in, but for anyone looking at jewelry retail exposure or just a cheap growth story in consumer goods, Signet's worth a serious look. The valuation combined with the structural tailwinds from lab-grown diamonds adoption makes this feel like it still has runway. Worth keeping on your watchlist.