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Just been looking at Hims & Hers and honestly it's been brutal this year. Stock's down 70% over the past 12 months after that insane 170% run in 2024. Wild swings for a telehealth company. The thing is, they actually put up solid Q4 numbers - revenue hit $617.8M, up 28% year over year, and they're now at 2.51M subscribers. International revenue especially jumped from $6.9M to $63.7M. So why's the market punishing them so hard?
The GLP-1 drug situation really messed with investor confidence. They launched a compounded Wegovy alternative, then had to pull it after FDA pressure and that patent lawsuit from Novo Nordisk. The weight loss business grabbed headlines but honestly it's not even their biggest revenue driver anymore. Their subscription model and non-weight loss offerings are what's actually keeping cash flow strong. Gross margins did take a hit though - down 500 basis points to 72% - but that's partly from international expansion costs.
What caught my attention is the forward valuation now sits around 14x earnings for 2026. After that kind of drop, the stock looks pretty oversold to me. Management's guiding for $2.7-2.9B revenue in 2026 with $300-375M adjusted EBITDA, and they're pushing hard into international markets - just acquired Eucalyptus for that. Q1 guidance came in softer than expected at $600-625M revenue, which spooked people, but the bigger picture shows real growth potential. If the international expansion pays off and they launch new offerings beyond weight loss, this could be interesting at these levels. Not saying it's a sure thing given the regulatory headwinds, but feels like there's some opportunity here for patient investors.