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Just caught this report on Chicago business activity and it's actually pretty interesting. The barometer reading jumped to 57.7 in February, which is way higher than what analysts were calling for at 52.5. These guys at MNI Indicators were already tracking upside momentum from January's 54.0, but February came in even stronger.
What caught my eye is where the growth is coming from. Production index absolutely surged - up 9 points to levels we haven't seen since late 2023. Employment also made a comeback, jumping 7.7 points and finally returning to expansion territory after sitting in contraction for months. That's the kind of signal people usually pay attention to.
New orders index is also looking solid, hitting its strongest reading since early 2022. Even supplier deliveries ticked up. On the inflation side though, prices paid index went up 2.4 points, which makes sense given some of the January pullback we saw. Overall the barometer is definitely showing Chicago's business pulse picking up more than expected, which is worth watching if you're tracking broader economic momentum.