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At a crossroads — restore the structure or slide deeper?
On the weekly timeframe, a clear shift in character appears after an extended bullish cycle. The price was previously respecting an upward trendline, forming higher highs and higher lows within an organized ascending channel. This trend has now been strongly broken, indicating that momentum has weakened and market control is no longer firmly in the buyers' hands.
The chart highlights several previous rejection points near the upper boundary of the range, where distribution structures formed before the breakdown. The last rejection near the ~$BTC area was a sign of a macro low, followed by a sharp collapse that broke the upward trendline — a major technical invalidation of the bullish structure.
Currently, the price is attempting to recover after reaching the demand zone around ~$60K–$BTC . However, the "area to watch" around ~$85K–$BTC now acts as a major supply source. This zone aligns with previous support turned resistance and sits just below the broken trendline, making it a critical decision point.
If $120K fails to regain and hold above this zone, the market is likely to continue its downward trajectory, potentially returning toward $65K or even deeper liquidity areas below. On the other hand, a strong reclaim of $95K with a weekly close above it would indicate a divergence and open the door toward over $110,000.
So far, the structure remains cautious — this is a classic transitional phase where patience and confirmation are more important than prediction.