On the subway, I just saw a bunch of people chasing “whale addresses” and copying their homework… The truth is, before you follow their trades, first figure out whether they’re building a position or hedging. Otherwise, you might think they’re going long—when actually, over on the other side, a reversed position is already sitting in the other pool, and the net position isn’t as exciting as you think.

Lately, I’ve been paying closer attention to a few details: during the same period, are they splitting orders and breaking them across routes, are they frequently switching pools, and are the execution prices constantly getting nicked by slippage (this ID of mine isn’t famous for nothing). Building a position is usually more “patient,” while hedging is like cleaning up a mess: fast, fragmented, and often taking detours.

By the way, the whole NFT royalty dispute is pretty similar too—creators want steadier income, secondary markets want smoother liquidity, and the end result is that routing gets more and more convoluted. In the end, the ones who get screwed are still the retail folks who follow after “copy buying.” Anyway, when I see whale moves now, my first reaction isn’t “go for it,” but to ask one thing: are you betting on the direction, or are you hedging to buy protection? For now, that’s it.