U.S. public debt, GDP surpassing 100%... fiscal burden intensifies

The U.S. public-held national debt exceeded 100% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of this year, and some evaluations say that, as the world’s largest economy, the United States’ fiscal burden has been pushed up another step.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on April 30 (local time), as of the end of the first quarter of 2026, the total U.S. public-held national debt amounted to $31.216 trillion. Compared with the nominal GDP over the most recent four quarters, the ratio was 100.2%. Given that the ratio was 99.5% at the end of September last year, this means that in a little more than half a year, this symbolic benchmark has already been surpassed. The public-held national debt referred to here reflects only funds borrowed externally by the federal government—from markets, overseas, and private investors—and does not include debt held in internal government accounts such as the social security fund. Economists place more weight on this metric when assessing a country’s actual fiscal burden, precisely because it better shows the external repayment pressure.

The U.S. ratio exceeding 100% is the first time since 1946, except for the second quarter of 2020, when the COVID-19 shock was enormous. In 1946, shortly after World War II ended, this ratio reached 106.1%, but afterward it continued to decline as post-war growth and fiscal normalization took hold. Up until 2008, it remained below the 40% level. Since then, driven by responses to the financial crisis, expanded welfare spending caused by population aging, increased interest-rate burdens, and repeatedly accumulated fiscal deficits, the ratio has risen sharply again. Especially during the pandemic, large-scale fiscal spending was carried out to stimulate the economy, while GDP temporarily decreased, causing the ratio to exceed 100%; it then fell back into the 90% range, but has shown a rebound trend again since 2023.

The issue is that upward pressure in the future is likely to persist. The U.S. federal government’s annual fiscal deficit is about 6% of GDP, which means that each year the government adds a substantial amount of debt relative to the size of the economy. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that public-held national debt will reach 120% of GDP by 2033 and as high as 175% by 2056. This means that if the spending growth pattern continues to outpace revenue growth without any change in the structure, debt ratios cannot be reduced merely by economic recovery.

Market attention is less on surpassing 100% itself and more on the impacts that this trend could bring if it becomes long-lasting. As debt increases, the government must issue more Treasury bonds, which may impose long-term burdens on interest rates and the structure of fiscal spending. Mark Goldwein, senior vice president of the non-governmental organization “Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,” said, “We are heading into uncharted territory,” reflecting these concerns. The 100% figure itself does not immediately mean a crisis, but it is seen as a signal that U.S. fiscal conditions have entered a stage more fragile than in the past. This trend may further intensify future debates surrounding U.S. tax policy, adjustments to welfare spending, and the stability of the Treasury bond market.