Been watching memory chip plays closely, and Micron's run this year has been absolutely wild. Back in September I was bullish on this space, but what's actually happened has been even more impressive than expected.

The stock is up 165% since that September call, and just in the last three months alone it's jumped another 93%. That's the kind of move that gets people's attention. The reason is pretty straightforward - there's a genuine supply crunch in memory chips right now, especially in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI data centers. Samsung, SK Hynix, and even smaller players like SanDisk are all benefiting, but Micron's positioned right in the sweet spot.

What really caught my attention in their latest earnings was the updated TAM guidance. They're now expecting the $100 billion HBM market to hit that milestone by 2028, two years ahead of their previous estimate. And they're calling for 40% annual growth in HBM through 2028. That's not some one-year pop - that's sustained tailwinds.

The numbers are pretty staggering too. For Q2, they guided to $18.7 billion in revenue when Wall Street was only expecting $14.3 billion. EPS guidance came in at $8.42 versus expectations of $4.71. That's the kind of beat that shows the market had seriously underestimated both growth and margin expansion.

Here's what makes this interesting looking ahead - Micron's already locked in HBM supply contracts through 2026, so the momentum should continue. Meanwhile, Intel just reported that it's on the other side of this equation, actually getting hurt by the memory shortage. That's a pretty clear dynamic favoring Micron and its peers.

Even after this run, the valuation still looks reasonable. Trading at a forward P/E of 12 based on 2026 consensus estimates, it's still priced like a cyclical stock despite having clear visibility into sustained growth through 2028. With no signs of the supply crunch easing and AI demand still ramping up, this is worth keeping on the radar for 2026 and beyond.