Assessing TFI International (TSX:TFII) Valuation As Short Term Momentum Contrasts With Longer Term Returns

Simply Wall St

Thu, February 19, 2026 at 10:17 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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TFII

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TFI International (TSX:TFII) has attracted attention after its shares closed at CA$159.47, with recent returns mixed across timeframes and a value score of 4. This has prompted fresh questions about how the market is treating the stock.

See our latest analysis for TFI International.

Recent trading has been choppy, with a 7 day share price return of a 6.5% decline and a 30 day gain of 2.1%. However, the 90 day share price return of 40.1% contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return of a 10.3% loss, which hints at strong short term momentum but a tougher longer term experience for holders.

If TFI International’s recent swings have you thinking about where else value might be hiding, it could be a good moment to check out our screener of 3 top founder-led companies.

With TFI International trading around CA$159 and showing a mixed record across recent periods, the key question now is whether its valuation still offers a margin of safety or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 3.6% Overvalued

TFI International’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at CA$153.95, slightly below the current CA$159.47 share price. This sets up a tight valuation debate around freight capacity and margin recovery.

Bullish analysts highlight tighter capacity in trucking and transports, helped by enforcement actions and regulatory pressure that chip away at lingering overcapacity. They see this as supportive for pricing and margins over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what earnings power this hinges on, and how much freight volume and margin rebuild is baked into that CA$153.95 fair value? The full narrative lays out those assumptions in plain numbers and shows how they connect back to today’s price.

Result: Fair Value of CA$153.95 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there is still the risk that weak freight demand and pricing pressure in U.S. LTL will persist for longer, while excess capacity and underused assets keep margins under strain.

Find out about the key risks to this TFI International narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

The narrative fair value pins TFI International at CA$153.95 and labels the current CA$159.47 share price as slightly overvalued. Yet our DCF model suggests the shares may be trading about 46.1% below an estimated CA$296.02 future cash flow value. That is a wide gap, so which lens do you trust more?

Story continues  

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

TFII Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

With sentiment in this article pulling in both cautious and optimistic directions, it makes sense to look at the numbers yourself and move quickly to shape your own view, starting with the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If TFI International has sharpened your focus on valuation and risk, do not stop here. Use this momentum to size up a few more ideas.

Target potential mispricing by scanning our list of 5 high quality undervalued stocks, where pricing and quality metrics line up more tightly than many headline names.

Strengthen the defensive side of your portfolio by reviewing 8 resilient stocks with low risk scores, built around companies with comparatively lower risk scores.

Get ahead of the crowd by working through our screener containing 6 high quality undiscovered gems, which highlights quality businesses that fewer investors are currently focused on.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include TFII.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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