Just caught up on the FOMC decision from a few weeks back and there's a lot going on in the markets right now. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% like expected, and Powell basically said they're in no rush to move either way. That's keeping the dollar pretty supported, though there's been this weird dynamic where Trump's been talking about being okay with a weaker dollar, which is actually pulling things in the opposite direction.

What's interesting is how much uncertainty is moving things around. You've got the geopolitical stuff with Greenland and tariff threats on Canada, then the government shutdown risk on top of that. Foreign investors are apparently pulling money out of the US because of all the political noise, which is weighing on the dollar even after the FOMC signaled they're holding steady.

Meanwhile, precious metals are having a moment. Gold and silver both popped hard - gold actually hit new record highs around $5,323/oz back then. A lot of that's people rotating out of dollar assets into safe-haven stuff. You've also got central banks like China's PBOC continuing to load up on gold reserves month after month, which is keeping that bid underneath the market.

The real thing to watch is what happens with rate expectations for later in 2026. Markets are pricing in the Fed cutting rates by around 50 bps while the BOJ is expected to hike, so that interest rate differential is going to keep the dollar under pressure. Between the political uncertainty and the FOMC being on hold, there's a lot of moving parts right now.