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Just checked Tesla's latest quarter results and the stock is down about 1.9% since the earnings dropped. Pretty interesting considering the earnings actually beat on EPS - they posted 50 cents per share versus the 45-cent estimate. But here's the thing: revenues came in at $24.9 billion, which missed expectations and fell 3% year over year. That's probably why the market isn't super excited.
Looking at the production numbers, Tesla churned out 434,358 units in Q4 but that was down 5% from last year. Deliveries were even worse - only 418,227 vehicles, which is a 16% drop. The Model 3/Y segment saw 406,585 deliveries, down 14% year over year. Automotive revenue hit $17.7 billion but declined 11%, and even with regulatory credits included, the numbers just didn't wow investors.
What caught my eye though is that their energy storage business is actually firing on all cylinders. Energy revenues jumped 25% year over year to $3.84 billion with 14.2 GWh deployed. Cash position also looks solid at $44.1 billion. But the consensus estimates have been trending downward pretty hard - down 16.88% in the past month - which explains why analysts are giving this a Sell rating.
The automotive margins did improve to 17.2% from 12.8% the quarter before, so there's some operational efficiency happening. Still, with free cash flow dropping from $2.03 billion to $1.42 billion, the market seems to be pricing in some skepticism about the growth outlook. Paccar in the same sector is up only 0.6% over the same period, so it's not just Tesla feeling the pressure.