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So Palo Alto Networks has been getting hammered - down over 25% in the past year, and it dropped even further after their latest earnings announcement. But here's the thing: sometimes these dips create opportunities worth looking at.
The company just reported solid fiscal Q2 numbers with revenue hitting $2.59 billion, up 15% year-over-year. That's actually at the high end of what they guided for. Service revenue climbed 13%, with subscription revenue up 14%, which shows their recurring revenue model is working.
What caught my attention is their next-generation security segment - that's where the real momentum is. Their NGS annual recurring revenue jumped 33% (28% excluding acquisitions) to hit $6.33 billion. Their SASE platform alone is doing about $1.5 billion in ARR, growing around 40%. That's the kind of growth trajectory you want to see.
Now, here's the catch. Palo Alto has been on an acquisition spree to build out their platform strategy. They closed Chronosphere earlier this year, just finished integrating CyberArk, and announced they're picking up Koi for AI-powered endpoint security. These moves make strategic sense for expanding their platform, but they're going to pressure earnings per share in the near term. The stock component of the CyberArk deal especially will hit EPS.
Their adjusted EPS came in at $1.03, which beat their $0.93-$0.95 guidance - up 27% year-over-year. But looking ahead, they revised full-year guidance up on revenue while guiding EPS down. They're now expecting revenue between $11.28-$11.31 billion (up from $10.5B prior guidance) but adjusted EPS of $3.65-$3.70 for the year, which represents only 9-11% growth.
What makes this interesting from a valuation perspective is that Palo Alto is trading at a much more reasonable multiple now. We're looking at around 9x forward price-to-sales on fiscal 2027 estimates and 33x forward P/E - a significant pullback from where the stock has historically traded. For a company with this kind of NGS growth trajectory, those multiples don't look unreasonable.
The way I see it, these acquisitions are strategic bets on where cybersecurity is heading. Yes, they'll create some short-term EPS drag, but the long-term platform consolidation story looks solid. If you believe in the platformization thesis and the next-gen security market opportunity, current levels might be worth accumulating at.