Just been looking at the nat-gas charts and there's been some interesting moves lately. April contracts closed up almost 3% on Thursday after that bigger-than-expected natural gas inventory draw came through - EIA reported a 132 bcf drop versus the 124 bcf people were expecting. That's the kind of supply tightness that usually gets traders' attention.

The inventory situation got a boost from that situation with the Ras Laffan facility going offline. That plant handles about 20% of global LNG exports, so when it shuts down, it definitely moves the needle. European nat-gas prices had already spiked to 3-year highs earlier in the week, which carried over to our markets.

That said, the rally got capped a bit by weather forecasts showing warmer temps across the eastern US through mid-March. Less heating demand means less bullish pressure on prices. Production numbers are also something to watch - US dry gas output is running around 113 bcf/day, up nearly 6% year-over-year. The EIA bumped up their 2026 production forecast too, which is bearish longer term.

On the positive side for prices, electricity demand has been solid - output was up almost 8% year-over-year for the week ended Feb 28. And the natural gas inventory levels are still running a bit tight relative to the 5-year average, even with that recent draw. Active drilling rigs hit a 2.5-year high at 134, so producers are definitely ramping up activity. Watching how these natural gas inventory reports trend over the next few weeks should tell us a lot about where we're heading.