Soybean futures have been taking some real heat lately. We're looking at losses of 6 to 7 cents across the board as February trading kicked off, with Friday alone posting 8 to 10 cent drops. March contracts are down about 3.5 cents on the week, which honestly isn't great when you're trying to hold a position. Open interest numbers shifted around pretty noticeably too - March lost over 3,700 contracts while May picked up about 3,700, so there's definitely some rolling happening. Cash bean prices fell 7.5 cents to sit around $9.98, and the meal and oil complexes followed suit with their own declines. Spec funds have been accumulating long positions though, adding over 7,200 contracts to their net long as of late January, bringing them to around 17,300 contracts net long. So there's still some belief in these soybean futures despite the weakness. What's concerning is the export picture. We're sitting at 33.85 million metric tons of commitments, which is 20% below where we were last year at this point. That's only 79% of the USDA estimate versus the typical 87% pace, so export demand is definitely lagging. Crop conditions aren't helping either. Argentina's soybean crop is only 47% in good or excellent shape, down 6 points from last year, and Brazil's still early in harvest at just 10%. These supply and demand dynamics are probably going to keep pressure on soybean futures prices in the near term.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pin