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Just caught something interesting in the latest fund filings. FourWorld Capital dropped $73 million into Sable Offshore back in Q4, loading up 8+ million shares. That's not a small position either - it's now 63% of their entire portfolio. Most funds diversify way more than that, so they're clearly making a serious bet here.
The timing is worth noting though. Sable shares have gotten absolutely hammered - down 72% over the past year. So FourWorld is essentially catching what they think is a falling knife in the energy sector. The company focuses on offshore oil and gas production in California, but here's the catch: they're stuck in legal battles over pipeline restarts. A Santa Barbara judge recently blocked their Las Flores pipeline restart, which is a major setback for operations.
On the positive side, at $8.25 per share, the valuation is definitely more attractive after that beatdown. But the real question is whether Sable can actually win these legal fights. If they do, there could be decent upside. If they don't, this becomes a value trap. For a fund to put 63% of their AUM into one stock, they're betting big that the regulatory headwinds eventually clear. That's either conviction or desperation - sometimes hard to tell the difference in the market.