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Just noticed sugar futures are getting undercut pretty hard today. India's crushing it with production at 29.3 MMT for 2025/26, up 12% year-over-year, and that's weighing on prices. March NY sugar is down -0.02 and May London white sugar dropped -0.90 earlier.
What's interesting is Brazil's real hit a 1.75-year high, which is actually helping contain losses since it makes their exports less attractive. Plus, there's this massive short position building in NY sugar futures - funds hit a record 265,324 net shorts last week. That could spark a short-covering rally if sentiment shifts.
But the bigger picture? Surplus city. Multiple analysts are calling for 2-8.7 MMT global surplus in 2025/26, with India and Thailand both ramping up production. ISO is forecasting +3.2% y/y growth in global output to 181.8 MMT. India just approved another 500K MT for export on top of existing quota, so supply's definitely undercutting demand expectations. The USDA even pegged record global production at 189.3 MMT. Hard to see prices catching a bid with this much coming online.