Soybeans took a hit on Monday as geopolitical tensions weighed on the market. The front months dropped 5-8 cents while uncertainty around China and the recent US-Israel strikes on Iran created headwinds. Crude oil did provide some support to bean oil though, which jumped over $4 following the weekend developments.

The export numbers that came out Monday morning caught my attention - we saw 1.138 MMT of soybeans shipped in the week ending 2/26, which was actually 66.9% higher than the previous week and 62% above the same period last year. China remained the top buyer with 734,698 MT, though the marketing year total is still running 30.4% behind last year's pace.

On the production side, Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing at 39% according to AgRural, which is lagging compared to the same time last year. This matters because when soybeans are harvested and how quickly the supply hits the market can shift prices pretty significantly. Both AgRural and StoneX trimmed their Brazilian crop estimates, cutting projections by 3-3.8 MMT to around 177-178 MMT. That's meaningful given the global supply picture.

March soybeans closed down 7.25 cents at $11.50, May fell 6.75 cents to $11.64, and July dropped 5.75 cents to $11.77. Cash beans were down 2 cents at $10.91. Soybean meal futures were hit harder, falling $2.30 to $7.60, while soy oil actually managed to push 70-92 points higher on that crude oil spillover. The conflicting signals show how much uncertainty is driving the complex right now.