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I've been seeing a lot of people get excited about leveraged ETFs lately, and I think it's worth having a real conversation about why you should probably steer clear of them if you're planning to hold for the long term.
Take UltraPro S&P 500 ETF (UPRO) as an example. On the surface, it looks amazing - up 26% over the past year compared to just 15% for a regular Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. That's a huge difference, right? The thing is, UPRO is designed to deliver 3x the daily returns of the S&P 500. So if the market gains 1% in a day, UPRO targets a 3% gain. Sounds like the perfect tool to build wealth fast.
But here's where it gets tricky. The ETF's own documentation literally warns investors: if you hold it for anything longer than a single day, your actual returns might be way higher or way lower than expected. And that's putting it mildly.
The real issue comes down to basic math. When markets drop - and they always do eventually - leveraged ETFs get hit way harder. If something falls 50%, you need a 100% gain just to break even. That's the math that works against you during downturns. Early 2025 was a perfect example. UPRO took a massive hit that was significantly worse than what the regular S&P 500 index experienced. It dug itself into a huge hole that took months to climb out of.
This is why comparing the actual performance matters so much. Yes, UPRO is up 26%, but that's nowhere near the 3x multiple it's supposed to target. The leverage works both ways - it amplifies gains on good days but absolutely crushes you on bad ones. Over time, those bad days compound in ways that destroy the leverage advantage.
Unless you're genuinely comfortable with stomach-churning drawdowns during bear markets, the long-term risk profile of leveraged ETFs just doesn't make sense. You're taking on way more pain than the potential reward justifies. If you want to build real wealth over decades, you're probably better off steering toward boring, steady index funds. I know that sounds less exciting, but that's kind of the point.