Just noticed treasuries pulling back hard today after that escalation in the Middle East. Yields on the ten-year just jumped 8.6 basis points to around 4.05%, which is pretty significant considering we were dipping below 4% just last week. So what's going on? The U.S. and Israel launched strikes over the weekend that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, and then Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks across the region. Israel followed up with airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. The whole situation is heating up fast. Trump said he expects this to last 4-5 weeks but they've got capacity for much longer if needed. Here's the thing though - while bonds usually act as a safe haven, what's actually driving this pullback is the oil market freaking out. Crude prices are spiking hard on supply disruption fears, and that's got everyone worried about inflation coming back. If oil stays elevated, the Fed might have to keep rates higher for longer, which means fewer rate cuts in the near term. That's why we're seeing this pull back in treasuries right now. The market's basically repricing inflation expectations. On the economic side, manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 for February, down slightly from 52.6 in January but still showing growth. It's quieter than expected on the data front, so tomorrow's trading will probably be all about reacting to whatever happens next in the Middle East. Worth watching how this plays out because geopolitical tensions plus inflation concerns could reshape the whole rate outlook.