Just been watching the dollar rally hard today, up over 1.2% to levels we haven't seen in months. Oil prices are spiking to 8.5-month highs which is pushing inflation expectations up, and that's basically killing the chances of more Fed rate cuts happening anytime soon. The fed rate now is the key thing traders are watching - money markets have slashed expectations from 60 basis points down to just 37 basis points for the whole year. That's a pretty dramatic shift in just a few days.

The stock market dumping today is actually helping the dollar get stronger because everyone's hunting for liquidity. Meanwhile the euro is getting absolutely wrecked, down 1.3% to 3-month lows. European natural gas prices just jumped 24% to 3-year highs which is going to slow their economy and push inflation higher - not great for the ECB. Their February CPI came in hotter than expected though at 1.9% year-over-year, which ironically might keep the ECB hawkish and support the euro a bit.

Gold and silver are taking it on the chin right now. Gold down over 5%, silver down 9% - both hitting 1-week lows. The stronger dollar is the main culprit, plus bond yields are climbing everywhere. People are liquidating precious metals positions to cover losses in stocks. But there's still some support underneath from geopolitical tensions and the fact that central banks keep buying. China's PBOC added 40,000 ounces to reserves last month, their 15th straight month of buying.

The fed rate now is basically the story driving everything. If we don't get those rate cuts investors were expecting, the dollar stays strong and commodities stay pressured. Meanwhile the BOJ and ECB are on different paths - that rate differential is huge for currency pairs right now. Watching to see if this dollar strength holds or if we get some mean reversion.