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Just been tracking copper mining costs and it's getting wild out there. Freeport's unit cash costs per pound jumped to $2.22 in Q4 from $1.40 the quarter before - that's nearly 60% spike. Even crazier, they're guiding toward $2.60 per pound for Q1 2026. The problem? Their copper production volumes tanked almost 30% year-over-year after that Grasberg mine suspension back in September. Lower volumes mean fixed costs get spread thinner, which is brutal for margins.
Interesting part is how differently their peers are managing this. Southern Copper's actually crushing it with operating costs down to 52 cents per pound of copper, a massive 46% drop from a year ago. Meanwhile BHP's costs are all over the map depending on which operation - Escondida looking at $1.20-$1.50 per pound while Spence is way higher at $2.10-$2.40. So the copper per pound cost picture is pretty fragmented right now depending on mine location and efficiency.
FCX stock up 41% in six months but the industry's up 73%, so it's lagging. Trading at 24.88x forward earnings versus 26x industry average - slight discount but with these rising costs eating into profits, worth watching how Q1 earnings actually shake out. The guidance for full-year average around $1.75 per pound suggests they're expecting some normalization, but that production ramp-up needs to happen first.