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Just caught the February jobs report and it's rough. NFP came in at -92K when everyone was looking for at least +50K, and that's not even the worst part. The real sink in confidence came from December getting revised down to -17K from the initial +50K print. That's a major source of concern for anyone watching the employment data closely.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, and when you dig into the numbers, healthcare dropped 28K positions thanks to that nursing strike, but that's only part of the story. Info systems and transportation both shed 11K jobs, government lost 10K. Over the past year, transportation and warehousing is down 157K positions. The four-month average for job creation is now negative at -21K monthly for the first time since the pandemic. That's the kind of signal that makes you pay attention.
The only bright spot? Hourly wages came in stronger than expected at +0.4% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year. But labor force participation dropped to 62%, the lowest since December 2021, and the U-6 unemployment rate hit 7.9%. When you source all this data together, it paints a picture of a labor market losing momentum.
Markets reacted instantly. Futures were down hard this morning, Dow -1.37%, S&P 500 -1.27%, Nasdaq -1.56%, and the Russell 2000 getting hit the hardest at -2.29%. Add in oil pushing past $90 a barrel and some geopolitical tensions, and you've got a recipe for a rough trading session. At some point the market needs actual good news to reverse course, not just hope and bounces from support levels.