Just noticed sugar prices are getting undercut pretty hard lately. March NY sugar is down 1% and London ICE white sugar hit a 2.5-month low, which caught my attention. The main culprit seems to be global production ramping up everywhere.

Brazil's crushing it with Center-South output up 0.9% y/y to 40.222 MMT through December, and they're shifting more cane toward sugar production. But what's really flooding the market is India - their 2025-26 output through January is already up 22% y/y to 15.9 MMT. The India Sugar Mill Association even raised their full-year estimate to 31 MMT, up 18.8% y/y. The kicker is India's planning to export more sugar to clear domestic oversupply, which is definitely undercutting prices further.

Thailand's also ramping up, with projections for 10.5 MMT (up 5% y/y), and the USDA just came out saying global 2025-26 production could hit a record 189.318 MMT. That's going to undercut prices even more when you consider global consumption is only climbing 1.4%. Multiple analysts are now forecasting surpluses ranging from 1.6 to 8.7 MMT depending on who you ask.

The bearish setup is pretty clear - record output from the world's top producers is undercutting margins everywhere. Only real bright spot might be 2026-27 when Brazil's expected to drop to 41.8 MMT, but that's still a ways out. For now, looks like we're stuck in a buyer's market.