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Just caught something interesting brewing in the defense sector that most investors probably missed. Boeing's prediction of dominating sixth-generation fighter development might actually be playing out even bigger than initially thought.
So here's what went down: Boeing snagged the F-47 contract last year, beating out Lockheed Martin for what could be a 20 to 50 billion dollar development deal. That was already huge news for Boeing investors. But what's really caught my attention is how the Pentagon's budget priorities are shaping up for this year.
The Pentagon just requested 3.5 billion for F-47 development, which is massive. Meanwhile, they're asking for basically pocket change for the Navy's F/A-XX program - just 74 million. A senior Defense official basically said they're going all-in on F-47 because the industrial base can't handle running both programs at full speed simultaneously.
Here's where it gets interesting though. The Navy apparently doesn't want to completely abandon F/A-XX. They've put out a wish list asking Congress for an extra 1.4 billion if anyone's listening. That money would let them award the contract to either Boeing or Northrop Grumman.
But here's my prediction on how this might actually play out: instead of building two completely different aircraft, what if the Pentagon just tailors the F-47 into a Navy variant? Similar to how they created different F-35 models for different branches. You'd essentially get an F/A-47 or whatever they'd call it, built on the same platform. One development program, two aircraft variants, billions in savings.
If that prediction comes true, Boeing just won the lottery. They'd get two major contracts while only really developing one plane. Lockheed Martin, meanwhile, gets shut out of both programs. That's the kind of outcome that could reshape the entire defense contractor landscape for the next decade.