Just been watching cocoa prices and there's some interesting cross-currents happening right now. NY cocoa dropped yesterday while London cocoa actually popped - looks like currency fluctuations are playing a big role here. The dollar rally hit NY prices while the pound weakness helped London, which is a pretty classic currency story.

The bigger picture though is that global cocoa supplies are just crushing prices. ICCO raised their surplus estimate to 75,000 MT (first surplus in four years), and you've got inventories sitting at 6.5-month highs. Ghana and Ivory Coast both cut farmer prices by 30-35% because buyers just aren't stepping up at current levels. Meanwhile demand is weak - Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume, and European grindings fell 8.3% last quarter. Chocolate makers are getting hit because consumers won't pay those chocolate prices anymore.

There's some support from shipping costs spiking due to geopolitical stuff, which is limiting cocoa exports, but honestly the supply-demand picture looks pretty bearish. West Africa's got favorable weather for the mid-crop coming in April, and pod counts are running 7% above average. Cocoa's been in a downtrend for seven weeks now and it feels like there's more pressure to come unless demand picks up.