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Netflix's recent dipping has been pretty interesting to watch. The stock's down about 40% from recent highs, and everyone's freaking out about that Warner Bros. acquisition deal they announced late last year. All-cash offer of $82.7 billion that Netflix sweetened in January - sounds ambitious, but here's the thing: the market's probably overreacting.
Yeah, the debt situation is real. Taking on that kind of leverage to buy a slower-growing business like HBO and Warner Bros. is no joke. Plus there's the integration headache - these aren't Netflix's speed. And I get why people are nervous.
But if you actually look at Netflix's core business right now, it's still solid. Revenue grew 16% last year, expecting 12-14% growth this year. Operating earnings sitting at $13.4 billion, free cash flow at $9.5 billion. That's serious cash generation. The acquired earnings from Warner Bros. plus that cash flow should help them work down the debt over time.
Here's what I think actually happened: Netflix was trading at a crazy 60 P/E ratio earlier this year. The Warner Bros. deal gave Wall Street the perfect excuse to sell off the premium. Now it's at 31 P/E, which is way more reasonable for a company with this cash flow profile.
Is it a buy now? That's the real question. The valuation's definitely more attractive than it was. But there's also YouTube eating into their US viewing time - that's something worth monitoring. The core business is fine, the balance sheet will recover, but the risks around the acquisition are real. Worth keeping on your radar though.