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I just looked at an analysis of the EV industry and found a very interesting phenomenon.
Many people are still focusing on the new players Lucid and Rivian, thinking they represent the future of electric vehicles. But if you look closely at their financial reports, the situation isn't so optimistic. Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles last year, a 55% increase year-over-year, which sounds good. But the problem is, the company lost $2.7 billion, and free cash flow is still negative $3.8 billion. Rivian's situation is a bit better, with 42,247 deliveries, but a $3.6 billion loss, and cash flow is also negative $2.5 billion. Although these two companies are expanding capacity, they are still far from profitability.
In contrast, Tesla's situation is completely different. In 2025, revenue is projected to reach $94.8 billion, with an adjusted profit of $5.8 billion. That’s true scale and financial strength. I think this is what EV share investors should really pay attention to.
Even more interesting is Tesla’s growth logic. Autonomous driving is no longer just a marketing concept but a real business model. FSD monthly subscription costs $99, with 1.1 million paying users. If this number continues to grow, it will form a stable subscription revenue stream. Some analysts predict Tesla’s autonomous driving business could reach a scale of $250 billion by 2035. This is not wishful thinking but a projection based on current data.
Energy storage is also often overlooked. Last year, Tesla deployed 46.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage, a 48% increase year-over-year. Energy business revenue was $46.7B, up 27%. This growth rate is even faster than the automotive business. As the demand for large-scale energy storage in power grids and data centers continues to rise, the potential of this segment is just beginning to be unleashed.
Another key difference is that Tesla uses its own cash flow and profits to support these investments—self-developed chips, AI infrastructure, the Optimus robot project. And what about Lucid and Rivian? They still rely on external financing, whether through debt or equity dilution. In capital-intensive manufacturing industries, this difference will become more and more apparent.
Of course, Tesla’s valuation isn’t cheap either—its 16.2x price-to-sales ratio seems high. But it’s not just a simple car company—software subscriptions, energy business, potential revenue from autonomous driving and robots are all changing the valuation logic. For long-term investors who can withstand short-term fluctuations, Tesla’s position in EV shares remains hard to shake.
The key is to see clearly who has truly achieved scale and profitability, and who is still burning cash. From this perspective, Tesla’s competitive advantage far exceeds that of other EV companies.