Today, while walking by the sea, I skimmed the weekly report for next week and noticed everyone is using “stablecoin supply is up” and “ETF net inflows” to infer that things will definitely go a certain way next… Plainly speaking, these two are more like thermometers than engines. If supply increases, it might only mean there are more “parking spots” before people enter, or it could just be tokens moving around on-chain, market makers getting their ammo ready, or even nothing at all happening.

Recently, people keep bringing up the staking unlocks and token unlock calendar, and I totally understand the anxiety about sell pressure. But right now, I’m more inclined to look at “who’s taking it in, and where do they go after they take it in,” not just stare at a number and start imagining a waterfall. Either way, I’m not pretending to be an expert—what I can do is slowly watch what’s actually being used in the ecosystem, and don’t let correlation scare you into treating it like causation. That’s it for now.