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Woke up to a brutal market day - all the major indices are absolutely sinking right now. S&P 500 down 2.18%, Dow down 2.27%, and Nasdaq got hit even harder at -2.37%. These are 3+ month lows we're talking about, so the selling is pretty serious.
The whole thing seems to revolve around crude oil going absolutely crazy. WTI is up over 8% and hitting 8.5-month highs because of the Iran situation escalating. Apparently there's been drone attacks on oil infrastructure, including damage to a major UAE oil hub, and now we're hearing threats about blocking the Strait of Hormuz. That's basically a fifth of the world's oil supply at risk, so obviously traders are panicking about energy prices and inflation. Goldman Sachs is putting a $18/barrel risk premium on crude just for a potential disruption scenario.
Natural gas got absolutely hammered too - up 22% after Qatar shut down its main export facility following an Iranian drone hit. That's 20% of global LNG supply offline, which explains why European gas prices are at 3-year highs.
Bonds are getting crushed alongside stocks. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.12%, German bunds hit 2.814%, and UK gilts are at 4.553%. Everyone's worried about inflation spiraling from these energy shocks, so safe-haven buying isn't really helping the bond market like it usually does.
Sectorwise, tech is sinking the hardest. Micron is down 8%, and basically all the chip stocks are getting destroyed - ASML, Intel, Applied Materials all down 5-6%. Mining stocks are collapsing too with gold down 4% and silver down 7%. Airlines are under pressure because higher oil means higher jet fuel costs eating into margins.
Some bright spots though - Best Buy beat earnings and is up 4%, and Pinterest rallied 6% on a buyback announcement. But honestly those gains are getting completely overshadowed by the broader selloff. Earnings season is mostly done now with over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, and overall they've been solid with 73% beating expectations. Just doesn't matter when geopolitical risk is this elevated and energy markets are in chaos.
Fed speakers are talking about how inflation has been stubbornly above target for years now, so don't expect rate cuts anytime soon. The market's barely pricing in any cuts for the March Fed meeting. This week we've got employment data, ISM services, and jobs report on the schedule - could be some volatility depending on how those numbers come in.