Just saw an interesting investor sentiment survey for 2026 and the numbers are pretty revealing. About 68% of folks expect stocks to keep climbing this year, but here's the thing - most aren't expecting those crazy double-digit returns we've been seeing. Only 11% think we'll hit 10%+ gains again. The majority are looking for something more modest, like 4-9% returns.

What caught my attention though: even though half the people surveyed mentioned recession and inflation as real concerns, almost nobody thinks we're heading for a serious market pullback. Only 3% expect a 10% correction. That's pretty striking when you consider we typically see corrections like that every couple years. The last one was in 2025 with the tariff situation, before that 2022 with the inflation panic. So are we heading for a recession this year? The survey suggests investors don't think so, but the disconnect between people citing recession risk and then not expecting any real losses feels a bit odd.

AI investors are slightly more confident than the average person - 64% of them are betting on those 4-9% gains. Makes sense given how well AI stocks have performed lately. Tech took a hit in early February (down almost 9% year-to-date at one point) but bounced back, which shows there's still some vulnerability in the market even with all this optimism.

Bottom line: the mood is cautiously bullish heading into the rest of 2026. People feel good about the economy and think stocks will keep going up, but they're not expecting anything wild. Whether that confidence holds if we actually do hit recession conditions - that's the real question nobody seems to be betting on.