Just noticed sugar prices are getting hit pretty hard lately. NY futures dropped to a 3-month low on Friday, and London sugar even touched a 5-year low earlier this week. The whole market seems to be pricing in this persistent global glut that's not going anywhere anytime soon.

Brazil keeps pumping out more sugar - their Center-South output is up almost 1% year-over-year through mid-January, and they're shifting more cane toward sugar production instead of ethanol. India's also ramping up big time, with production up 22% so far this season, and the government's looking to let more exports out to clear their domestic oversupply. Even Thailand's expected to boost output by 5%. When you add it all up, basically every major producer is flooding the market.

The analysts seem pretty aligned on this too. Multiple forecasters are calling for a global glut anywhere from 1.6 to 8.7 MMT depending on who you ask, and the USDA just said we're looking at record global production hitting 189 million MT while consumption only grows 1.4%. That's a recipe for prices staying under pressure. The only bright spot might be Brazil potentially pulling back production in 2026/27, but that's still a ways out. For now, this supply glut looks like it's going to keep weighing on the market.