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Just caught up on soybean action from earlier this week and wow, the Supreme Court ruling really threw things into a tailspin. Soybeans got hit pretty hard - front months dropped 3-4 cents while March held up slightly better at +4.5 cents. Cash beans sitting at $10.76, up about 7.5 cents, which is decent considering the broader pressure.
What's interesting is how the soybean oil price moved - down 70-75 points for the front months, though March soy oil futures actually popped 184 points. Soymeal also caught some upside with front months up $5 to $5.30 and March showing 60 cents gains. The tariff uncertainty is definitely spooking things though - once Trump signaled that 10% blanket tariff idea, it seemed like risk-off kicked in hard.
On the sales side, old crop bookings were solid - 798k MT for the week ending Feb 12, which crushed the prior week and was way above year-ago levels. China grabbed the lion's share at 415k MT. New crop sales were lighter at 66k MT. Meal and soybean oil price action both showed strength in the data, with meal sales hitting 480k MT and oil sales around 11k MT.
Managed money added 40k+ contracts net long that week, bringing total positioning to 163k. Closing prices: March soybeans at $11.37.5 (down 3.5), May at $11.53.25 (down 2.75), July at $11.66 (down 2). Definitely keeping an eye on how this tariff situation unfolds - could be a major driver going forward.