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Just noticed something interesting about Oneok that might be worth paying attention to. After a pretty impressive growth spurt over the past few years, this pipeline company is hitting the brakes in 2026 before things potentially pick up again down the road.
Last year was solid for them. Oneok pulled in over $8 billion in adjusted EBITDA, up 18% from 2024. That's their 12th straight year of growing that metric, and they've been doing it at a 17% annual clip. Earnings per share jumped 11% too. The growth spurt was fueled by higher volumes from their EnLink and Medallion acquisitions back in 2024, plus they squeezed out another $250 million in synergies from those deals and the Magellan Midstream purchase.
But here's where it gets interesting. They're guiding for $7.9-8.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year, which is basically flat to slightly up. That's a massive deceleration from what they just delivered. Why? Higher corporate costs and lower commodity prices in certain regions are weighing things down. So yeah, the growth spurt is definitely cooling off.
That said, don't write them off yet. They've got some meaningful catalysts coming. The Medford NGL Fractionator rebuild wraps up next year, and the Bighorn Processing Plant should be online by mid-2027. But the real story is 2028 when two major projects go live: the Texas City Logistics export terminal (part of a $1 billion JV) and the Eiger Express Pipeline, which just got expanded from 2.5 to 3.7 Bcf/d. That's when the next growth spurt should kick in.
Meanwhile, the dividend is solid at 4.9% and they're committed to bumping it 3-4% annually. They just hiked it 4% for this year and have over 25 years of consecutive increases. So even with the near-term slowdown, there's plenty of income to collect while you wait for the next wave of growth.
The way I see it, Oneok's a classic case of a mature infrastructure company hitting a temporary pause before the next cycle of expansion projects drive things forward again. If you're looking for steady income with some growth potential built in, worth keeping on your radar.