Just saw Domino's missed their Q4 earnings target - came in at $5.35 per share when Wall Street was expecting $5.38. But here's the interesting part: on Polymarket, the prediction market traders had it totally backwards going into the announcement. About 64% of contracts were betting "yes" on a beat, so basically everyone was positioned wrong.

This is actually a solid example of how prediction markets work as a trading tool. If you'd bought "no" contracts betting on the miss, you would've been in profit while the stock rallied on better 2026 guidance. Some traders are using these platforms as insurance against earnings surprises - way less risky than shorting outright. You get directional exposure without the unlimited downside.

Berkshire also added to their stake recently, which is interesting given the mixed signals. Morgan Stanley cut their rating though, so there's definitely debate on whether the domino piece fits into the recovery story. Either way, the earnings miss was a good reminder that prediction markets can catch things the consensus misses.