So Hong Kong's giving back Friday's gains on Monday - not surprising given what's happening globally. The Hang Seng had climbed 249 points on Friday to hit 26,630, but that rally looks fragile now. You had the financials, property stocks and tech companies doing the heavy lifting, but the geopolitical situation is about to hand that back pretty quick.

What caught my attention is how the whole market's mood shifted. We went from a solid Friday close to everyone bracing for weakness come Monday. The index had already taken a beating earlier in the week - dropped almost 700 points or 2.7 percent - so this bounce felt more like relief than conviction.

Looking at the individual movers, you saw some interesting action. WuXi Biologics was flying with a 5 percent jump, Hang Lung Properties surged over 3.8 percent, and New World Development spiked 3.6 percent. Even CSPC Pharma was up almost 4 percent. But Xiaomi sank 0.8 percent and some of the tech plays couldn't hold momentum.

The problem is Wall Street handed back all its gains on Friday too. The Dow fell over 1 percent, NASDAQ dropped 0.92 percent, and the S&P 500 lost 0.43 percent. For the week, the Dow was down 1.3 percent, NASDAQ off 1 percent. The producer price report came in hotter than expected - 0.5 percent versus 0.3 percent forecast - and that's got people worried about stagflation creeping back in.

Then you've got the military escalation between the U.S. and Iran. Crude oil already spiked 2.6 percent on Friday to $66.92 a barrel, and that's likely to jump again now that actual hostilities are happening. This kind of geopolitical risk is exactly what makes investors hand back their gains and move to defensive positions.

Hong Kong's probably going to follow the same playbook as the rest of Asia - open lower and stay under pressure. The momentum from Friday's rally is already fading before the bell even rings.