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Just been looking at what's actually sitting in Berkshire's portfolio right now, and honestly, there's still some interesting plays buried in there even after Buffett stepped back from the day-to-day stock picking.
Let me walk through a couple worth grabbing with both hands this month - and one that's probably better left alone.
First up, American Express. Yeah, everyone's worried about consumer debt hitting record levels. The New York Fed's data is pretty sobering - household debt just crossed $18.8 trillion with delinquencies climbing to near decade-highs around 4.8%. On the surface, that should terrify any lender. But here's the thing about Amex that most people miss: they're not really a mainstream credit card company. Their customer base skews wealthy, and wealthy people are still spending. Their cardholders' luxury spending actually jumped 15% year-over-year in Q4, almost double the 8% growth in total billed business. The stock's pulled back nearly 20% from December's peak, mostly on recession fears, but that pullback might be your best entry point. This one's worth considering seriously.
Then there's Constellation Brands. Corona and Modelo's parent company has been a rough ride since Berkshire jumped in late last year. Alcohol consumption in the US hit a multidecade low at 54% according to Gallup, which explains why the stock's been struggling. But cyclical businesses have a way of bouncing back. People cut back on booze when they're stressed about money or health, but that demand comes roaring back when confidence returns. Meanwhile, management's been making smart moves - they've been trimming lower-priced wine brands that were just cluttering the portfolio. New CEO Nicholas Fink coming in should bring some fresh thinking too. This feels like a patience play, but potentially worth it.
Now, here's where I'd pump the brakes: DaVita, the kidney dialysis company. Berkshire's been holding this since 2011, but the dynamics have completely shifted. Revenue's only up 5% year-over-year through the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, yet net income's down 17%. That gap tells you everything about what's happening in healthcare right now - reimbursement pressure is relentless, and there's no relief valve in sight. Berkshire clearly saw the same thing I'm seeing. They've been quietly scaling out of this position since early last year, and Greg Abel's kept that same approach going. When the Oracle starts bailing on something after more than a decade, that's probably a signal worth listening to.
The broader point: not all of Buffett's holdings deserve to be in your portfolio just because they're in his. Sometimes patience pays off, sometimes it's just a slow bleed.