Just noticed cocoa got absolutely hammered today - NY futures down over 4% and London down almost 6.5%, hitting their lowest levels in 2-3 years. Buyers are being pretty reluctant to jump in at current prices, especially with Ghana and Ivory Coast potentially cutting farmer payouts. That's wild because these two countries supply more than half the world's cocoa, so when they move, the whole market feels it.

The thing is, supply looks pretty solid right now. Forecasts are pointing to surpluses in the 250-300k MT range for the next couple seasons, and inventories just hit a 4+ month high. Plus West Africa's having good growing conditions, so the harvest outlook is actually pretty strong. Meanwhile, chocolate makers are reluctant to buy at these prices too - demand is just weak across the board. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa sales volume last quarter, and grinding numbers from Europe and Asia both came in soft.

What's interesting though is that Nigeria's production might drop 11% next season, so there's some tightness brewing. But honestly, with so much cocoa sitting around and buyers reluctant to commit at current levels, I'm watching to see if we push even lower before any real support kicks in. The market's definitely in a wait-and-see mode right now.