Just noticed coffee futures got hit pretty hard on Monday. Arabica dropped 2.68% and robusta slid to a 6-month low. The whole market's been sliding for weeks now with arabica touching 15-month lows last week.

The main culprit? Brazil's about to have a massive coffee harvest. Their crop agency came out saying 2026 production will jump 17.2% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Plus they've been getting plenty of rain in Minas Gerais, which is their biggest growing region. That's pushing global supply way up.

Vietnam's also flooding the market with robusta exports. Their January shipments surged 38% year-over-year to 198,000 MT, and they're projecting even bigger numbers for the full year. When the world's largest robusta producer starts shipping that much volume, prices feel it.

On the flip side, ICE's arabica and robusta inventories have been recovering from their lows, which is also bearish. Colombia's production dropped 34% year-over-year in January though, so that's providing a little support. But overall, with Brazil gearing up for a record crop and Vietnam exporting aggressively, the supply picture just got a lot heavier for the rest of the year.