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Just ran the numbers on Alphabet and there's something worth paying attention to. The stock's at $307.65 right now, and honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if it hits $1,000 within the next decade.
Here's what caught my eye. Alphabet is throwing serious money at AI infrastructure—we're talking $175-185 billion in capex by 2026. That's not just talk. The company's playing to win, and when you look at what they've already got locked down, it's hard to bet against them. Google Search still owns 90% of the search market, YouTube dominates engagement, and their Cloud division just posted 48% YoY growth last quarter. Waymo's making real moves in autonomous vehicles too. This isn't a company standing still.
The math actually works out pretty cleanly. For Alphabet to reach $1,000, you're looking at roughly 225% upside from here. The stock trades at a P/E of 28.5, which I'd argue is actually reasonable for a business this quality—probably fair value sits closer to 30x. Wall Street's consensus has earnings growing at 12.7% annually. If that holds and valuation stays put, you're looking at about 10 years to hit that $1,000 target. Not earth-shattering returns compared to what Alphabet's done historically, but solid enough.
The real question is whether Alphabet can keep executing at this level while the AI arms race heats up. They've got the search moat, the cash flow, and the balance sheet to keep investing aggressively. That's a pretty strong foundation. Personally, I'm watching how the capex story plays out over the next couple quarters—if they keep deploying capital efficiently, this could be a multi-year winner.