Coffee futures are all over the place right now. Arabica ticked up slightly today while robusta got hit, sliding to 4-week lows. The main story is what's happening in Brazil - heavy rains just came through Minas Gerais, the heartland of arabica production. We're talking 69.8mm of rain, which is way above the historical average for this time of year. Good news for crop yields, bad news for prices obviously.

The supply picture is getting pretty bearish. Brazil's crop forecasts keep getting bigger - they're now projecting 56.54 million bags for 2025, up 2.4% from earlier estimates. And Vietnam's not slowing down either. Their robusta exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year, hitting 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam's actually expecting production to climb another 6% to 1.76 million metric tons. That's a lot of supply hitting the market.

Inventories are recovering too, which is weighing on prices. Arabica stocks bounced back to 461,829 bags in mid-January after hitting lows, and robusta inventories are also climbing. The only real supportive factor is that Brazil's own exports have been falling - December coffee exports dropped 18.4% - but that's not enough to offset the bigger supply picture. Global production is expected to keep growing, so the market's probably going to stay under pressure for a while.