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The biggest feeling I’ve had from watching the market these past two days is this: as long as interest rates don’t ease, it’s hard for everyone’s risk appetite to really pick up. Put simply, it’s not that we don’t want to push higher—it's that funding costs are what they are. That, in turn, makes positions more “short” and lighter. The slightest ripple and people will cut back a bit first; it just feels safer in the mind.
Right now, I’m more like doing “patience work.” I treat my position like a faucet: when macro sentiment cools, I turn it down a little, and only when I’m sure it isn’t a false drop do I add back slowly. I also don’t really dare to price things based on imagination anymore—I’d rather watch more data for a few more days before I move.
Also, in the community, things are starting to flare up again about privacy coins and mixing coins. When the lines around compliance get so blurry, the risk premium suddenly becomes very real… In any case, I’ll first keep these exposures at a level where I can still sleep at night, so I’m not wrestling with my emotions. Talk again next time.