Just caught cocoa futures rebounding pretty hard today - NY May contract jumped over 5% and London up nearly 5% too. Highest levels in about a week and a half. The geopolitical tensions around shipping routes are definitely spooking traders, with concerns that strait closures could mess with export flows and drive up logistics costs.

But here's the thing - the broader picture still looks bearish. A few months back ICCO bumped up their global surplus forecast significantly, and we're staring at the first surplus in four years. Production keeps climbing while demand stays weak. Barry Callebaut reported a brutal 22% drop in cocoa sales volume, and European grindings fell nearly 8% last quarter - weakest Q4 in over a decade.

West African supply is also ramping up. Ivory Coast and Ghana just slashed farmer payouts massively, which is pushing more cocoa onto the market. Growing conditions look solid too, so the mid-crop harvest coming up could be decent. Meanwhile, stockpiles are building - ICE inventories hit 6.5-month highs recently.

So yeah, today's rebound is interesting to watch, but without a major demand shift it feels like we're just getting a breather in a bigger downtrend. Fundamentals still pretty heavy on the bearish side.