Just caught up on Amazon's Q4 numbers and honestly, the market reaction feels like classic overreaction to me. Yeah, they slightly missed earnings expectations with $1.95 adjusted EPS versus the $1.98 consensus, but everything else screams growth acceleration.



Let me break what actually happened: Q4 revenue hit $213.38 billion, up nearly 14% year over year. AWS was firing on all cylinders at $35.6 billion in revenue with over 20% growth, and advertising also spiked over 20% to $21.32 billion. Even the retail segments weren't slouching—North America up 10% to $127.1 billion, International up 17% to $50.7 billion. Net income was $21.2 billion, up 6% year over year. For the full year, they crossed $700 billion in annual sales for the first time ever, hitting $716.92 billion with 12% growth.

Now here's where it gets interesting. Management announced they're committing $200 billion to capital expenditures in 2026—their largest spend ever and a 53% jump from the $131 billion they deployed last year. That announcement tanked the stock nearly 10% on Friday, which is exactly what I'm watching right now.

But step back for a second. CEO Andy Jassy made a point about understanding demand signals in the cloud business and converting that into strong returns on invested capital. Translation: they're not just throwing money at AI infrastructure blindly. The company's ROIC sits at 16%, which is solid and actually improving. Sure, it's below the 20% threshold and trailing some peers, but the trajectory matters more than the absolute number here.

What's catching my attention is the valuation reset. AMZN is now trading near its cheapest forward P/E in the last decade at around 28X. That's the kind of dislocation you see when short-term fear about massive capital spending overshadows the actual business momentum underneath. Amazon has a track record of deploying big infrastructure bets that eventually pay off handsomely.

For context, they've now beaten revenue expectations for six straight quarters and posted an average sales surprise of 1.55% over the last four quarters. The EPS miss was their first after 12 consecutive beats. Q1 guidance came in at $173.5-$178.5 billion in expected sales, which puts them at 11-15% growth—still solid for a company of this scale.

The way I see it, this is the kind of moment that separates patient investors from reactive traders. Strong fundamentals, meaningful AI infrastructure investments being made with discipline, and a valuation that's stopped looking ridiculous. Whether you're looking at this from a tech perspective or just monitoring how the broader market is pricing growth right now, the start of Q4 earnings season is definitely revealing which companies can handle capital intensity without destroying returns.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
Add a comment
Add a comment
No comments
  • Pin