Over the past couple of days, I’ve seen a whole bunch of charts about “smart money labels/address clustering,” claiming how this round of capital flow is moving. To put it bluntly, I only trust about half of it now: it’s totally normal for the same person to have multiple addresses, and it’s also not surprising that you can force several people into the same cluster. On-chain is indeed transparent, but the profile is drawn by people—bias is like bread fermentation: you can’t really tell at the front, but later it suddenly goes off.

I use it as a “thermometer,” not a “navigation” tool—just to see roughly whether things are hot, and whether there’s a whiff of a liquidation chain. If I really want to make a move, I still go back to the interest rate curve and the collateral structure. Especially recently, miners/validators’ income, MEV, and fairness in transaction ordering have been getting a lot of flak. When there’s heavy traffic, the capital flow you see might just be a phantom after it’s been wrapped in an extra layer of skin… Anyway, I’d rather move slower and not let the labels lead me around.