Just caught the latest sugar action and prices are getting undercut pretty hard right now. NY sugar dropped yesterday, and there's clearly some concern weighing on the market after that Financial Times report about China potentially hiking taxes on sugary beverages. That's a real demand wildcard if it actually happens.

What's interesting though is the production side looks mixed. Brazil's output numbers are softer than expected for this time of year, which would normally support prices. But then you've got India ramping up production and the government just approved another 500k MT for export on top of what was already allowed. Thailand's also looking at a solid crop increase. So we're basically staring at a potential global surplus situation that keeps getting bigger.

The real pressure point I'm watching is the fund positioning. Those guys have built up massive short positions in NY sugar futures - hit record levels last week according to the COT data. That's the kind of setup that could spark a short-covering bounce eventually, but right now it feels like surplus concerns are just too heavy.

Looking at the forecasts, pretty much every analyst is calling for surplus into 2026/27. USDA's projecting record global production while consumption growth is way slower. That's the story keeping prices undercut - too much sugar coming, not enough demand growth to absorb it. Unless something changes on the demand side, hard to see a major rally forming here.