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Rough week for equities as multiple headwinds came together Friday. The S&P 500 dropped 1.33%, Dow fell 0.95%, and Nasdaq slid 1.51% - pretty much everything sold off on a combination of inflation fears and surprisingly weak jobs data.
The energy situation in the Middle East is really weighing on sentiment. Oil jumped over 12% to hit 2.5-year highs as tensions escalated, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and key facilities getting hit. Qatar's energy minister made some pretty stark comments about the conflict potentially bringing down global economies, and there's real concern crude could spike toward $150 if this drags on. That's pushing inflation expectations higher - the 10-year breakeven rate climbed to a 5-week high of 2.378%. When you look at Qatar's own inflation rate pressures combined with these global energy shocks, you're seeing serious stagflation risk building.
Then we got the February jobs report and it was a dud. Payrolls actually fell by 92,000 when we were expecting a 55,000 gain - biggest drop in four months. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. That spooked people because it suggests the labor market might be rolling over. Earnings have been holding up though - 74% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations so far this quarter, and Q4 earnings growth is tracking around 8.4%.
Tech stocks got hammered. The Magnificent Seven all down more than 2% - Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Nvidia all under pressure. Chipmakers were especially weak with Lam Research down 7% and most semis down 5-6%. Airlines also tanked on the oil spike since jet fuel costs are climbing. Defense stocks were the outlier, moving higher on speculation about increased military spending.
The bond market actually rallied into the close despite oil surging earlier - the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.131% as safe-haven demand kicked in and the weak jobs report made rate cuts look more likely. Fed officials are still signaling they're watching inflation carefully, but the labor market weakness is starting to shift the conversation.